A presidential pre-election opinion poll conducted by Anap Foundation, a non-profit organisation, has projected Peter Obi of the Labour Party as the likely winner of Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election.
The results of the nationwide poll which was released on Wednesday, placed Obi ahead of Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) respectively.
Conducted in early December, the results showed 23 per cent of voters willing to vote for Mr Obi if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13 per cent proposing to vote for Mr Tinubu who fell in second place.
Mr Abubakar came third with 10 per cent and Mr Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with only 2 per cent of voters proposing to vote for him.
“Mr. Peter Obi’s 10%-point lead at this stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him from a leading pack of candidates scoring 13%, 10% and 2%,” Atedo Peterside, ANAP’s founder, said in a statement on Wednesday.
“Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 29% and 23%, respectively.
“The gender split of undecided voters shows that 38% of women are undecided versus 21% of male voters.
“This result was polled from 1,000 respondents; after which Anap Foundation conducted similar polls with a 2,000 and 3,000 respondents sample size, the difference in the results was not significant.”
Polls by Geo-Political Zones
According to the Anap poll, the north-central places Obi in the lead with 24 percent, followed by Tinubu with nine percent, Atiku with eight percent, while Kwankwaso had one percent.
Atiku in the north-east, leads with 23 percent, Tinubu with 15 percent, Obi has eight percent, while Kwankwaso has two percent.
Atiku also was placed ahead in the north-west, with 17 percent, followed by Tinubu with 15 percent, Obi with 11 percent, and Kwankwaso scored six percent.
In the south-east, 50 percent of the voters chose Obi, Tinubu and Atiku had one percent each, and Kwankwaso did not have any percentage.
In the south-south, 46 percent aligned with Obi, Tinubu came a distant second with nine percent, Atiku had three percent, and Kwankwaso got one percent.
In the south-west, Tinubu came first with 22 percent, Obi had 15 percent, Atiku scored four percent, and Kwankwaso had one percent.
“The percentage of voters refusing to disclose the name of their preferred candidate has increased sharply from 15 per cent to 23 per cent making it difficult for us to ascertain if any of the candidates has picked up significant momentum between September and December 2023,” Mr Peterside added.
The foundation had commissioned a poll in September that tipped Mr Obi to win the election with Mr Tinubu and Mr Abubakar finishing second and third position respectively.
“If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the February Presidential 2023 elections,” Mr Peterside said.
“While this Poll result shows some significant trends, it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the undecided/swing voters as they would ultimately decide which candidate takes the lead to emerge as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential elections.”
Anap explained its Methodology
On how the poll was conducted, the researchers said the survey was polled “from 1,000 respondents; after which Anap Foundation conducted similar polls with a 2,000 and 3,000 respondents sample size, the difference in the results was not significant.”
The high percentage of voters (38 per cent) who refused to disclose their preferred candidate in the South West Zone is worrisome. For other zones, those who refused to disclose their preferred candidate ranged from 14-23% per cent,” the group said.
“Historically, an exceedingly high percentage of voters refusing to disclose their preferred candidate is usually associated with perceptions/fears (real or imagined) of possible voter intimidation within a geographical area.”
Anap foundation added: “Our December 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner as the undecided voters, combined with the voters who refused to disclose their preferences, are enough to turn the tables.”
“However, Anap Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front-runners and so our subsequent polls will continue to concentrate on the 4 leading candidates only.”
