A projection of the forthcoming 2023 presidential election in Nigeria has been released by SBM Intelligence, a research firm that analyses West African geopolitical and economic situation.
SBM’s report predicted the states that the three front runners of the 2023 presidential elections will likely win.
The three front runners it reported are; Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP).
According to the SBM, the 2023 presidential election is set to be the tightest in Nigeria’s history. As such, the research firm predicts that there may be a run-off, the first in Nigeria’s political history.
Projection: 2023 presidential elections pic.twitter.com/YIJwleMKkT
— SBM Intelligence (@sbmintelligence) December 15, 2022
The SBM, nevertheless gave a caveat that “a week is a long time in politics”.
List of states Tinubu may win, according to SBM prediction:
- Yobe
- Borno
- Zamfara
- Katsina
- Jigawa
- Niger
- Nasarawa
- Kogi
- Oyo
- Ondo
- Ekiti
- Lagos
- Ogun
List of states Atiku may win, according to SBM prediction:
- Sokoto
- Kaduna
- Bauchi
- Gombe
- Adamawa
- Taraba
- FCT
- Osun
- Delta
- Bayelsa
- Rivers
- Akwa Ibom
List of states Peter Obi may win, according to SBM prediction:
- Plateau
- Edo
- Abia
- Imo
- Enugu
- Anambra
- Ebonyi
- Cross River
- Benue
List of states that are too close to call according to SBM prediction:
- Kebbi
- Kano
- Kwara
The SBM Intelligence predictions placed the Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC as the likely winner of the 2023 presidential election with 13 states to his name, PDP’s Atiku Abubakar second with 12 states while Peter Obi of LP third with 9 states.
